Intense title, right? Yeah, that ought to get the juices flowing. I believe it is true that Research in Motion (RIM)’s best days may be long gone. Now hear me out and if you disagree then comment away!
Is it just me, or does Mike Lazaridis look like he is going to cry in this video? It seems like a rather straight-forward question that any powerhouse CEO would easily be able to tackle. My theory is he has a lot to worry about right now and here’s why:
1. The BlackBerry PlayBook is Unbelievably Bad
Don’t take it from me, here is a nice summary of PlayBook reviews.
I have always held a certain special hatred for the BlackBerry (BB) operating system. In one of my past jobs I was given a BB for free (including the plan) so I used it. Everyday I waited for the day that I would be “forced” to get a better phone when I was no longer able to get the BB for free. Such a glorious day it was when I picked up my iPhone 4!
Don’t tune out yet. Yes, I own an iPhone – but I am not a fanboy. In fact, I am already considering getting an Android phone next because of the “my-way-or-the-highway’ locked-down nature of the iPhone (no different than the BB). But I digress.
2. The BlackBerry Operating System is SO bad
Did I already say that? I suppose I did, but it requires more depth. A successful phone these days is about the user-experience. It’s about the ability to customize (ahem, Apple could learn a thing or two here *hint: we shouldn’t have to jailbreak!), a sleek interface, a smooth powerful system and a diverse application offering. The BB OS has done little to innovate in any of these categories. The only reason it hasn’t disappeared already is because of its brand.
3. The Brand will only carry you so far
Consumers are always rational and make informed decisions when purchasing products, right? Wrong. Purchase decisions are made largely based on intangibles like brand recognition and loyalty. This is why many people turn a blind eye to BB’s flaws. Many BB users are beginning to see the light, however. It used to be that the only positive thing I would hear about BBs would be “that is has BBM” or “that it is produced locally”. I hear less and less of those arguments everyday as people are slowly starting to see that there are simply better options out there.Don’t get me wrong, BBs used to be the best thing on the market – but that time has long past and it is time to let go.
If I had a lot of money (unfortunately, I do not), I would short BB stock and wait 20-30 years. Given their size and the apparent power of their (obsolete) brand it will take a LONG time for BB to disappear and perhaps they will never truly disappear. Perhaps they can continue to find business in other parts of the world where consumers are less picky. As far as I’m concerned, though, BB is starting to show signs of a terminal illness beginning to spread beneath its shiny black surface.
A great article that builds on what I have mentioned here: http://www.slate.com/id/2291255/
Feels good. I’ve been meaning to get a summary like that out for a while. Some of you disagree, I’m sure. Feel free to comment. But please, no more “but it has BBM!”
Update: It’s happening even faster than I imagined. See this Globe and Mail article
Another Update: looking like I was right http://gizmodo.com/5922154/rim-cutting-5000-jobs-and-pushing-back-bb10-in-disastrous-quarter